Tajikistan is expected to commission the third turbine of its Rogun hydropower plant in the third quarter of 2027, according to an assessment by S&P Global Ratings. The forecast was included in a report that raised the country’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B+’ from ‘B’, citing the outlook for the flagship energy project as a key factor in the upgrade.
The rating agency noted that bringing the additional generation unit online will help Dushanbe resolve long-standing domestic power supply constraints by providing steady electricity output throughout the year. Operating the third unit will also improve water discharge management for cascading hydropower plants located downstream on the Vakhsh River, minimizing the risk of seasonal blackouts across the country.
Rogun is designed to feature a 335-meter rockfill dam, planned to be the world’s tallest, and six turbines with an individual capacity of 600 megawatts. The facility currently generates power via two units, which were commissioned in 2018 and 2019. Active construction resumed in 2016, with more than $3 billion allocated to finance work on the site so far.
Final completion of the facility is scheduled for 2035 and will require roughly $5.8 billion in additional funding, according to S&P estimates. The financing framework relies on an equal split of future costs, with half to be provided by a consortium of twelve international lenders led by the World Bank. The government of Tajikistan plans to cover the remaining 50 percent through state budget allocations and revenue generated from electricity sales by the currently operating units.
